The newest series to GCobb.com, Phillies Phourcast, will dissect each player on the Phillies’ roster, analyze each player’s past seasons and release the player’s projections for 2011.
The third installment of Phillies Phourcast will feature five-time All Star second baseman, Chase Utley.
His 2010 campaign was plagued by a torn ligament in his thumb, which resulted in him only playing 115 games.
His overall average this past season, .275, was his lowest total since 2004; however, he finished the season strong, batting .306 during the month of September.
He is one of the best hitters in the league when healthy, and if he can remain of the DL, which I expect him too, he will finish the season with an average between .285 and .295 — right around his career average of .293.
Batting Average (Past Five Seasons)
2006: .309
2007: .332
2008: .292
2009: .282
2010: .275
Stemming from his injured thumb, Utley’s power numbers took a major hit in 2010. During the ’08 and ’09 seasons, Utley combined for 64 home runs, his highest total between two consecutive seasons.
He followed those seasons up with just 16 home runs, a major decline from the standard he had set in previous seasons.
But Utley is and will remain a power hitter in 2011. He may not eclipse the 30 home run mark he reached in back-to-back seasons, but he should finish with around 25 home runs this season.
Home Runs (Past Five Seasons)
2006: 32
2007: 22
2008: 33
2009: 31
2010: 16
Any injury that induces a prolonged DL stint will result in poor numbers, which explains Utley’s down year in 2010.
But no statistic was as affected from his injury than his RBI’s were.
For four straight years, Utley knocked in 100+ runs. In 2009, Utley finished with just under 100 RBI’s.
However, in 2010, Utley finished with 65 RBI’s, his lowest total since 2004.
I don’t expect him to finish with any less than 90 RBI’s in 2011, and I believe he will have a shot to set his career-high in RBI’s (105). With Jayson Werth calling Washington home now, someone will have to account for the missing RBI’s from Werth — that will be Utley.
Runs Batted-In (Past Five Seasons)
2006: 102
2007: 103
2008: 104
2009: 93
2010: 65
Despite his 2010 struggles, Utley remains one of the best second basemen in the MLB. Even with his plagued season, Utley finished with the seventh highest average for qualified second basemen in the National League.
In addition to his powerful bat, Utley is a solid base-runner. He finished with seven steals in the final month of the season (13 total in 2010) and has continued to finish with 10 or more steals per season (23 in 2009).
Without further ado, I present my projections, along with statistician Bill James’ projections, for Utley for the 2011 season:
Batting Average: .293/.288
Home Runs: 29/26
Runs Batted-In: 106/94
Stolen Bases: 16/13
Runs: 104/99
This Phillie team cannot win it all unless Utley returns to his past,with high standards and overall performance. Hopefully he can start and maintain his health 100 % thru the Season, but he needs to put together a good consistent Season where he bats .285 to.300, Hits 25 + HR’s and gets close to a 100 RBI and continues to play well in the field and run the bases.
If he does not and continues to follow the trend in recent seasons with less productivity and more injuries with missed time, then I think the Phils will need to address. I thnk he will have a very good year
that position and him next off-season