Brewers, Braves Are Biggest Threats To Phillies

Last season, the San Francisco Giants came out of no where and shut down the Phillies in the NLCS. This effort was due in large part to the Giants’ rotation delivering clutch performances and the offense’s timely hitting despite their seemingly inept hitting throughout the season.

This season, however, the Giants aren’t the team I am worried about.

The two teams I am worried about both present the Phillies with some sort of problem.

The first team is an obvious one: the Atlanta Braves. Due to their competitiveness in the division, the Braves appear to be the lone team in the East that will compete with the Phillies down the stretch. The rivalry between the Phillies and Braves has been well-documented this season, and because of Atlanta’s solid pitching between Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson, the Phillies will not be able to run away with the division.

Jurrjens has pitched nearly flawless in his 89.2 innings of work. With a 9-3 record and a NL best 2.11 ERA, the Atlanta ace has kept the Braves within striking distance of the Phillies all season long. Despite the 23 combined wins between Jurrjens, Hanson and Hudson, the Braves are still 4.5 games back.

This is due to their struggling offense, which ranks 26th in batting average and 21st in runs. Because of the Phillies’ pitching staff and the Braves’ inadequate offense, Philadelphia should be able to hold off the pesky Braves down the stretch.

But the real problem with the Braves could come in the postseason if the two teams meet. The 2011 Braves could wind up being like the Giants of last season. Both teams present three quality pitchers (four if Derek Lowe can keep his ERA low) and an underachieving offense that could wake up come October.

The other team that I am worried about is the NL Central’s top dog: the Milwaukee Brewers. We’ve already seen how Ryan Braun can carry their offense; but now that Prince Fielder has finally found his stroke, the Brewers offense is certainly one to fear.

Ranked in the top ten in runs scored and slugging percentage, Milwaukee has two hitters batting over .300 (Braun and Fielder) and many hitters capable of taking one over the fence, including Rickie Weeks and his 14 home runs. Milwaukee also has Corey Hart, a former All-Star, who battled injuries during the first month of the season, but is slowly returning to his former self.

With the capabilities of their offense, Milwaukee’s pitching staff only needs to keep the runs to a minimum in order to claim victory. So far, the Brewers’ rotation has done just that. Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Zack Greinke and Randy Wolf all have over 5 wins each, while Marcum posts an impressive 2.85 ERA.

Since his return, Greinke has pitched very well, going 7-2 with 80 strikeouts and an ERA that is slowly improving (started with a 9.00 ERA and has lowered it to 4.77).

In a seven game series, the Brewers will have three pitchers capable of containing the Phillies offense. However, the series will be determined by the Phillies pitching versus the Brewers hitting. If Doc, Cole, Lee and Oswalt can keep the Milwaukee in check, something that did not occur in the first series, then the Phillies will have a legitimate shot at reaching the World Series yet again.

But who knows, maybe the Brewers will falter and the Braves will diminish. Teams like Arizona, St. Louis and Cincinnati could make deep postseason runs. On paper, though, the Brewers and Braves present the Phillies with the greatest competition, and judging by the way this season has gone so far, I believe that at least one of these teams will find themselves facing the Phils in the playoffs.

Aside from Milwaukee and Atlanta, are there any other teams that you feel match up well with Philadelphia?