• October 5, 2022

Here’s The Super Bowl Stone Cold Lock Pick

This is a rematch from a few years back when the Giants upset that undefeated Patriots team which was led by Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.  This year’s Patriots team is much different from the stand point that offensively their tight ends play a major role as receivers.  They don’t have Randy Moss so they’re not as much of a threat to go deep, but find ways to get into the endzone.

Eli Manning in a much more accomplished quarterback now than he was a couple of years ago.  He’s got a better group of receivers, plus the offense relies more their passing game.

SUPER BOWL XLVI, THE PICK, NEW YORK GIANTS +3

Four years ago the New York Giants pulled off a “shock the world” upset against a New England Patriots team that had previously been perfect through 18 games. This year they will meet again in the big game, in Indianapolis, and the Giants will once again play the role of the underdog. Tom Brady will be looking to exorcise his demons from four years ago, while Eli Manning the Giants will try and take another step towards creating a dynasty in New York.

The Patriots have been able to reel off a very impressive ten game winning streak. Ironically though, New England’s last loss was handed to them by the New York Giants, who have been able to find ways to create matchup problems for Bill Belichick’s football team. The Giants are 2-1 straight up, and 3-0 to the spread, against the Pats since 2007.

Much of New York’s success against New England can be attributed to their fierce pass rush. The best formula for beating a great pocket passer like Tom Brady is to create pressure, and the Giants are able to do that with the likes of Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, and Osi Umenyiora. The Giants are very deep up front, and their speed pass rushers are able to tee off against pass heavy offenses like New England. The Giants have pressured Brady in the past, and I don’t see any reason why that would change in this weeks contest.

New England also struggled against good teams this year. The Pats played a favorable schedule, as they only had to play three teams with with winning records all season. They went 0-3 to the spread, and 1-2 straight up against teams with winning records this year. In recent seasons New England has also struggled in the role of being a slight favorite. Dating back to 2009, the patriots are just 3-4-1 to the number when they are a favorite of three points or less. Meanwhile, the Giants have thrived in the role of being an underdog. The Giants posted an impressive 6-3 record straight up, and a 7-2 mark to the spread as a dog this season.

For New England, the Gronkowski injury can’t be ignored. I would be shocked if he didn’t play, but I would also be shocked if he is very effective. I view Gronkowski as New England’s biggest threat in the passing game, and it will be very difficult for the Patriots offense to put up points unless he plays at a high level. Realistically, I would expect Aaron Hernandez to be a more effective player in this game. Though Hernandez is a very good player, Gronkowski is the best Tight end in the game when healthy, and this injury could make a huge difference in this years Super Bowl.

I would lean towards New York in this game. They are playing great football at the moment, and quite frankly they are playing at a higher level than New England. The Giants seem to have the Patriots number, and the Gronkowski injury makes it even tougher on the Pats. I see the Giants controlling the line of scrimmage in this contest, and the New York front four should be able to consistently pressure Tom Brady. Take the Giants as a slight dog in Super Bowl XLVI .

Steve Melzer

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paulman
paulman
February 3, 2012 6:53 am

I would have thought you were broke by now Steve, with all the losers you’ve picked this Season… ha ha … I’ve enjoyed your articles this Season and keep up the good work..
I like the Giants 27-23 over the Patriots in a close entertaining game for 2 Reasons
#1) Giants D/Line will put more Pressure on Brady that the Pats D/Line will
on Eli giving Eli more time to make big plays down the field against a shaky Secondary
#2#) Giants trio of WR (Nicks,Cruz & Manningham) all are capable of making plays down the field and in the Red-Zone… Patriots have great slot WR Welker but no real deep Wideout threat and with Gronkowski not a 100%, this will hurt their intermediate passing attack versus the Giants Secondary

I would never count out Belicheck and BRady from any game and would not be surprised to see the Patriorts play real conservative and run the ball, thorw a lot of short passes and screens in the 1st half to keep their D/Line honest and for the Patriots to try to shorten the game to keep ball away from Eli & Company..
My MVP of the Game is Giants WR Mario Manningham with 8 Catches for 144 yards and 2 TD’s plusd an end around for 30 yards
I think the Giants come out throwing with a lot of 3 WR sets to spread the Patriots Defense out and then look to pound the rock in the 2nd after securing a lead. The Patriots make a valiant comback late in the game after being down 24-13 to start the 4th Quarter but too little, too late,,,Giants Win

paulman
paulman
February 3, 2012 7:40 am

Not to change the Subject
IN Baseball NEws, The Washington NAtionals singed Free-Agent Edwin Jackson from the Cardinals for a 1 Year Deal (Jackson gave the Phillies fits in 2 appearances late last year and playoffs)
Nationals now have 6 Capable Starting PItchers starting camp
Sensation S Strasburg, Gio Gonzales, C Wang, E Jackson and returning from the last season, the underrated duo of John Lannan and Jordan Zimmerman
This move takes a lot of pressure of Strasburg who does not have to be rushed to be on the opening day Roster and could allow him to start the 2012 Season in AAA and get his confidence and innings back and then be called up during the Season
If Wang bounces back and Pitches like his Yankee days, they could have a very deep,versatile and hungry Staff.. Both Wang and Jackson are on 1-Year Deals and good seasons by them could make them very attractive in the Free-Agent Market next Off-Season
The Nats have the best young Catcher,SS & 2B & CF in (Ramos,Desmonf,Espinoza,Bernadina) in the NL East and I expect those players to only improve and putting an everyday line-up with Matt Morse,Ryan Zimmerman,J Werth, gives them a very good everyday line-ups
and they have also added Vetreans A LaRouche,M DeRosa and MIke Cameron for versatility,leadership and good At-Bats as fill-ins and pinnch HItters…
Nats have a very good and deep Bullpen with Rodrigquez, S Burnett,Lidge,CLippard and dyanmite CLoser D Storen..
Bottom line is the NFL East is going to be the most Division in Baseball in my opinion (Inclunding the AL East)
Phils,Braves and improved clubs liek Marlins & Nats should provide for a close races… 90-92 Wins many win the NL East for I don’t see any team dominating and running away with the Division in 2012…

jott1972
jott1972
February 4, 2012 8:08 am

I have successfully picked every game so far and am sticking to my previous pick…..Giants over the Patriots 37-24.

Patriots will take the early lead, but the Giants will have a big 2nd quarter and run away with the game…..going into the 4th quarter, it will be 34-10 and the Pats will get 2 late scores to make it look close…. without a legit running game and with a poor secondary, the Pats cant stick with Cruz and Nicks for 4 quarters…..game MVP will be Victor Cruz…..10 catches 160 yards, 2 TDS

paulman
paulman
February 4, 2012 9:35 am

Wow Jott, thats a lot of points.. I think this will be a lower scoring contest..