A true franchise-quarterback prospect is incredibly hard to find. Chip Kelly may be hoping to land one by selling the farm to draft Marcus Mariota.
Just finding a quality quarterback in the first round in damn near impossible. Look at the names of all of the quarterbacks taken in the first round over the last 10 years.
Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Vince Young, Jay Cutler, Matt Leinart, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Brandon Weeden, Ryan Tannehill, E.J. Manuel, Johnny Manziel, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater.
All together, 26 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round since 2005. Of those, only Rodgers, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Newton, and Luck have established themselves as quality quarterbacks in this league. That’s 20 busts to six success stories. And even of those six, the jury is still very much out on the likes of Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, and Cam Newton.
Teams in this league are always desperate to find their franchise quarterback. And often times, desperation leads to bad teams making bad picks (or even bad trades to make bad picks). And bad picks, especially at the quarterback position, will set a team back for years.
In particular, let’s look at the Washington Redskins and Cleveland Browns. Here you have prime examples of two franchises under poor leadership that made some terrible decisions in the top of the draft at the quarterback position.
Of course with Washington, the Redskins infamously traded three first-round picks just a few years ago to move up and take Robert Griffin. Griffin has had a very rocky career, complete with multiple injuries, questions about his leadership, and has been benched by two separate head coaches. And with no other significant draft assets since 2012, Washington has been left with no other means other than free agency to significantly build around Griffin and improve their team.
The Browns have taken three quarterbacks in the first round in the last 10 years. They traded back into the first round to get Brady Quinn in 2007. They reached on Brandon Weeden at the bottom of the first round in 2012, only to release him a year and a half later. They traded back into the first round last year to buy-in to all of the Johnny Manziel/Johnny Football/next-big-thing! nonsense, and one year later there’s already talk of them considering Mariota if he’s available in round one! Talk about completely and utterly failing to learn a lesson…
Quarterback is the hardest position to project success for in the NFL. More often than not, a guy taken in the first round is a bust. A real “can’t miss” prospect like Andrew Luck happens maybe once in a generation. There’s no quarterback in this draft worth trading a king’s ransom for.
And here in the case of Mariota, you have a guy who isn’t considered anywhere near the level of prospect that Luck or even Griffin was. He’s arguably the top quarterback available in a very weak class. He’s a guy who was a product of a system, and played in the Pac 12, a conference known for some of the weakest defense is all of college football.
Here’s the second critical flaw with the idea of trading up for Mariota.
If any team sitting at the top of the draft is willing to pass on the opportunity to draft the “next Peyton Manning” (as his majesty Chip Kelly calls him), then there’s a good chance that said prospect is as a matter of fact, NOT the next coming of Manning.
Consider the following: no team in this league other than the Eagles would be willing to part with such a hefty package in exchange for the opportunity to draft Mariota. Sure, plenty of teams are more than likely intrigued by Mariota, but no team or general manager in this league sees him as a guy worth sacrificing multiple first and second-round picks for.
This is a quarterback-driven league where every losing franchise is desperate to find a true franchise quarterback to build around. If Mariota was really something more than just a system guy, why would the teams like Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Tennessee pass up a chance to take him as their own?
The answer is because he’s not a prospect of Manning or Luck proportions, and these teams have a lot more to gain from collecting a high ransom from a head coach with just two years of NFL experience who has already shown a tendency to overvalue his old Oregon prospects.
And if any team is willing to sell the Eagles an opportunity to move into the top of the draft to select a quarterback, chances are that team (which is most likely quarterback-needy themselves) feel that said prospect is much more likely to be Robert Griffin than he is Andrew Luck…
