• March 28, 2024

Phillies Phourcast: Raul Ibanez

The newest series to GCobb.com, Phillies Phourcast, will dissect each player on the Phillies’ roster, analyze each player’s past seasons and release the player’s projections for 2011.

The fifth installment of Phillies Phourcast will feature the aging, yet pivotal left fielder, Raul Ibanez.

The former Seattle Mariner has not been able to improve upon his numbers from his first season as a Phillie in which he knocked in a career-high 34 home runs.

However, he did raise his average slightly in 2010. Despite his elderly body (in terms of baseball age), Ibanez did bat .275 — his highest average since 2008.

Though, he is not a big-named player, Ibanez’s play, whether it be good or bad, will play a major role in how the Phillies’ offense performs this upcoming season. At 38 years-old, it doesn’t appear that Ibanez will be able to keep up his 25+ home run tendencies from a few seasons back, but in my opinion, I believe he will continue to bat around .275 – .280.

Batting Average (Past Five Seasons)
2006: .289
2007: .291
2008: .293
2009: .272
2010: .275

From a baseball perspective, most players don’t see their home run totals increase after the age of 35. For Ibanez, that trend holds true.

Aside from his 2009 power surge, Ibanez has only hit 25 or more home runs once since 2002.

I don’t expect Ibanez to hit the 20 home run plateau, but he should find himself slightly below that mark.

If by some slim chance Ibanez does eclipse the 20 home run mark, then the Phillies offense will almost certainly be among the top of baseball.

Home Runs (Past Five Seasons)
2006: 33
2007: 21
2008: 23
2009: 34
2010: 16

His power numbers are on the decline, and so are his RBI totals.

In 2006, Ibanez notched a career-high 123 RBI’s. He gradually saw those numbers dwindle (aside from 2008), and judging from those numbers, I don’t expect him to elevate his RBI totals in 2010.

But he hasn’t lost his consistency, knocking in 15 RBI’s in June and July, 13 in August and 16 in September. With that level of stability, Ibanez’s RBI totals aren’t necessarily too hard to predict — barring injury.

Runs Batted-In (Past Five Seasons)
2006: 123
2007: 105
2008: 110
2009: 93
2010: 83

With an aging Ibanez in left field, the Phillies’ offense should see a decline in production. But his cracking bones aren’t going to put a major damper to the Phils offense because of the amount of opportunities he will receive.

I feel that I keep repeating myself, but someone has to rise up in Werth’s absence. Whether it be Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, or Jimmy Rollins, someone will see a rise in their production.

That someone could ultimately be Ibanez. But only time will tell.

Without further ado, I present my projections, along with statistician Bill James’ projections, for Ibanez for the 2011 season:

Batting Average: .274/.270
Home Runs: 19/20
Runs Batted-In: 95/83
Runs: 81/75

Kyle Phillippi

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paulman
paulman
March 7, 2011 8:40 am

In what will be Ibanez’s final season as a Phillie, I think he will finish out strong
productivity wise

Paulmans 2011 Stats for Ibanaz

Bat avg .281
HR’s 23
RBI’s 87

I think they will platoon more oftern with Delmon Young/Ben DFrancisco
and be take out in the late innings for defensive purposes. SO Ibanez will get
less bats but be fresher for down the stretch run and the Playoffs..