• March 29, 2024

Breaking Down the Luke Schenn-JVR Rumors

Greg Paone touched on the Flyers’ need for a defenseman before the trade deadline, as well as the rumors that Flyers general manager Paul Holmgren was in talks with the Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brian Burke regarding a trade involving James van Riemsdyk and Luke Schenn.

Taking that discussion a step further, just how likely is this to happen?

I agree with Greg’s assertion that the Flyers aren’t going to trade for Shea Weber. That’s about as realistic as seeing Alex Ovechkin or Jordan Staal in an orange and black jersey.  Ryan Suter is a possibility if the Nashville Predators are unable to sign him to a long-term deal by February 27.

The odds of a seeing the Flyers trade for a top pairing defenseman, however, are low. As Holmgren told Tim Panaccio of CSNPhilly, he “would not ‘do anything stupid’ to ruin the chemistry on this club by tearing it apart to land a major defenseman.”

Call it a gut feeling, but the sense I’ve gotten from Homer is that he is hesitant to trade draft picks this year after finally beginning to re-stock the shelves. There’s certainly a chance that early draft picks get used to acquire depth at the deadline, but the 2012 NHL Draft is looking fairly deep itself. Homer has a good opportunity to develop homegrown defensemen for a change if he holds onto those assets.

That means moving forward depth.

The forwards that I would not consider untouchable are Jake Voracek, James van Riemsdyk, Brayden Schenn and Harry Zolnierczyk.

Salary cap management may not be Homer’s strong suit, but he has historically been a great read of talent. He knows when there is a good trade to be had, even if the results haven’t always panned out (i.e. Kris Versteeg). As a potential replacement for Matt Carle next season, Luke Schenn would fit the bill adequately.

In Toronto, he ranks 7th among the defensive core in both ice time and Corsi rating (a simple stat that determines if opponents direct more shots on a players’ net than his team does on theirs while he is on the ice). He gives the Leafs depth in case of injuries, but he is also signed for another four years past 2012 at a cap rate of $3.6 million. That’s way too much capital to waste on a 7th defenseman.

In Philadelphia, Schenn would rank 5th in ice time and 8th in Corsi rating.

Regarding JVR, Homer knows what the 22 year-old is capable of after watching last year’s short-lived Stanley Cup run. By leaps and bounds, JVR is a much bigger catch than many Flyers fans realize. Holmgren would be hosed if he traded the two straight-up; Burke would have to sweeten the pot with either early round draft picks or forward depth to make this deal work.  Players like Nikolai Kulemin (former 30 goal scorer with just 5 goals this season) or Joe Colborne (12 goals, 25 points in the AHL) could possibly get it done.

If JVR truly is available, though, Homer knows he can do better.

As for when this or any trade could go down, I would be shocked if it happened before February. For the Flyers, they still have not gotten enough of a look at Erik Gustafsson to see if he is capable of taking tough assignments in the event of future injuries. They are also sitting comfortably with 56 points while the Maple Leafs are doing just fine with 49 points.

There is no need for either GM to rush into a deal they aren’t comfortable with, especially when teams are likely to become more desperate once the deadline approaches.

Reuniting the Schenn brothers makes for a great story, but there’s a lot more smoke than fire at this point.

For the latest Flyers news, you can follow me on twitter (@JoshJanet).

Josh Janet

Josh Janet was raised in Northern New Jersey, but by an odd set of circumstances, is a Philadelphia sports fan. While recently converted to the Phillies, Josh is a diehard Flyers fan and can be expected to stay on top of the latest NHL news.

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lewdoggie20
lewdoggie20
January 14, 2012 10:42 am

No need to rush to a trade like this

Iggles
Iggles
January 14, 2012 12:43 pm

Nobody would trade for a guy (JVR) who is out indefinitely with post-concussion symptoms.

bugsyhawk
bugsyhawk
January 14, 2012 3:22 pm

Dude is young and will recover. They need a defenseman. If they can get Suter and sign him long term, then I would deal JVR in a heartbeat.